Mets Starter Showdown - Kyle Allen vs. Jeurys Familia

Over their final ten starts, Kyle Allen and Jeurys Familia posted nearly identical numbers in the "Sally" solidifying both as top starting pitching prospects for the Mets. Late in the season, I commented, "Both he and Familia will skyrocket up Mets prospect lists in the offseason and should be in the top 10. Consider them 1A and 1B with both being interchangeable depending on who is hot." However, post-season chatter has found Familia garnering much of the attention as his full season numbers were the most impressive in the organization. The consensus on prospect lists has Familia ranking three to five slots ahead of Allen, or more depending on just how heavily raw stats are weighed. From seeing both a handful of times, and with the Mets looking into a number of trade possibilities, I felt it appropriate to write a side-by-side comparison to emphasize just how close these two prospects really are.

Age - Advantage Allen: At four months Familia's junior, both will spend the 2010 season as age-20 players. The difference is negligible.

Physical Projection - Advantage Allen: While Familia is the bigger of the two, Allen is equal in height, has room to add size, and is a far superior athlete.

Mound Presence - Advantage Familia: Allen grew by leaps and bounds during the second half of the season, but Familia was strong throughout and was the leader of the Gnats pitching staff. He consistently attacked hitters and showed the ability to bare down in tough situations.

Fastball - Advantage Familia: Quite simply, Familia's fastball had the best combination of velocity and movement I saw this season. On occasion, he sat 92-94 with the pitch with above average command and boring action down and in to right-handed hitters. Allen also showed excellent movement at 90-91 MPH, but the pitch flattened out a bit at higher velocities.

Slider - Draw: Two very different pitches, Familia's "slurve" was a swing-and-miss pitch at 78-81 MPH. His 2nd half strikeout surge came from better command and sharper movement down-and-out to right-handed hitters. Allen's slider is more of a true slider. At 83-86 MPH, the pitch was inconsistent at times, but led to many ground ball outs. If he can add more downward action, his strikeout totals could surge.

Changeup - Advantage Allen: Kyle Allen's best offering, he showed the ability to cut the pitch to either side of the plate at will during his final start. Ranging from average to plus the handful of times I saw him in person, continued development of the pitch is likely to be what vaults him into elite prospect status. Familia's changeup flashed average in one start, but was a borderline offering in the half-dozen other times I watched him throw. From what I have heard, he spent instructs focusing solely on improving his change and has been told it will be what determines whether or not he ultimately remains a starter.

I hope this piece provides some insight into just how close these two prospects are. Familia certainly deserves whatever prospect hype he has received, but the lack of love Allen has garnered is a real head scratcher. Both would rank in my Mets top ten and would be no more than one slot apart. Heading into 2010, they should slide into the Port St. Lucie rotation and will once again battle for organizational bragging rights. While difficult to predict, it is certainly possible both will be worthy of placement in the top 100 by this time next season.