Manny Banuelos and Casey Kelly were the two most polished starting pitchers I had the opportunity to see in person during the 2009 season. After writing game reports on both, Yankee fans have questioned my placing Casey Kelly above Manuel Banuelos as a prospect. While both were similar in terms of production in the South Atlantic League, statistics, saber oriented or not, often do not tell the whole story.
Age - Advantage Banuelos: At 17 months Kelly's junior, Banuelos has the distinct age advantage. However, with Banuelos' present polish and the fact he may not have much room for physical growth, age versus level is not as important an indicator in Banuelos' case as it might be for other less refined pitching prospects.
Physical Projection - Advantage Kelly: At 6'3", 200 lbs., Kelly has an excellent pitchers build. Add to the mix his plus athleticism, and there is little question why people who have seen Kelly project a few more ticks from his fastball in the future.
Composure - Draw: Both pitchers showed maturity far beyond their years. One could argue Banuelos deserves a slight edge due to the age difference, but in this case, I'm not sure either can do much to improve in this area going forward leaving both equal in my mind.
Fastball - Advantage Banuelos: With both registering in the upper 80's and breaking 90 MPH on rare occasion, Banuelos receives the slight nod for being left-handed. As stated earlier, Kelly's fastball velocity projects to gain a few more ticks which could be an equalizing factor.
Curveball - Advantage Kelly: While both curveballs were solid offerings, Kelly's flashed plus which led to a number of wild swings in game action. Kelly's curveball also showed more bite through the strike zone while Banuelos' had a bigger, slower break.
Changeup - Advantage Kelly: In looking back at Kelly's start, I commented his changeup might have had a bit too much in terms of velocity. However, I am now left thinking his harder change allowed him to pitch at three distinct velocities which helped him to better keep hitters off balance. Combine this with fantastic drop and fade and it is a potential plus pitch.
If Casey Kelly were rated an "A" prospect, then Manuel Banuelos would be at least a "B+" if not a borderline "A-". Banuelos is a very good prospect, but not quite the dominating presence his statistics in the "Sally" would indicate. The big question with Banuelos is how much room for growth does he have left? As a pitcher with average athleticism and small stature, can he gain a couple of ticks in velocity as he continues to mature? While I strongly believe he can and will tighten up his secondary offerings, my feeling is he will settle in as more of a solid number four/fringe number three starter.
For those knocking Kelly's prospect status due to his time at shortstop taking away from his innings on the mound, his initial success in spite of being split between two positions actually boosts his prospect status by quite a bit. Once the experiment of Kelly as a shortstop is abandoned, he will be able to focus all of his efforts on pitching which only enhances his perceived value.
At this time of the year, it's typical for both "Red Sox Nation" and the "Yankee Faithful" to banter about who has the better prospects to offer for a Roy Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, or Josh Johnson. In terms of prospect value, the only player the Yankees can offer who trumps Casey Kelly is Jesus Montero.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
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18 comments:
I think this is a pretty riduculous comparison. How many times did you see these guys pitch? Manny Banuelos "occasionally" breaks 90 mph with the fastball? This is really the first place on the internet I've seen that assessment. Most other places have him sitting 90-92 maxing out at 96, that's a pretty big difference. You didn't even mention Banuelos' changeup which is also reported in many many other places to be better than his curveball. Kelly's secondary pitches couldn't have been that great if he only struck out 7/9ip. Is a 2.73 FIP and .240 BABIP in A ball really that impressive if you're not striking a lot of guys out? Especially considering he made less than 10 starts in either league. Seems like an awfully small samplesize, no? To me it seems as though you're basing this comparison between what Banuelos is now and what Kelly could be in the future. Bsically you say Kelly is going to be a better pitcher because he is taller.
My spelling is apparently very ridiculous at times too.
Hello Pat, Welcome to the blog! This argument is eerily familiar to a poster over at NYYFans.com so I'm going to assume this is the same person I was talking to over there.
Check out my previous piece Maximum Velocity. http://www.scoutingthesally.com/2009/09/maximum-velocity.html
In looking up a number of their pitch speeds online, you will notice my top end velocities recorded are consistently 2-3 MPH OR MORE slower than what you read elsewhere.
When you say Banuelos and 96 MPH, I want you to understand just how rare I see that kind of velocity. In the 40-50 minor league games I saw last season, only ONE player touched 96 MPH on a single pitch. That same pitcher was the only pitcher who touched 95 MPH once as well. SIX players touched 94 and FIVE others touched 93 MPH.
When you read velocities online, it's imperative you take them with a SERIOUS grain of salt. The best example I can give is a start with Brackman early in the season. Baseball America reported his sitting at 92-95 consistently while I saw him repeatedly at 89-90, touching 92-93 on rare occasion. The velocities reported by B.A. were from the Charleston Yankees pitching coach! Ummmm, conflict of interest much? The same evening, Elvin Ramirez touched 94 on the radar gun and was throwing harder than Brackman all night. If the readings I was getting were incorrect and I was off by 3 MPH, then Elvin Ramirez was touching 97 MPH. If he had the ability to hit 97 MPH, wouldn't he be ranked higher than the Mets 40-something best prospect? Common sense would say yes.
I'm a fan of sabermetrics just as much as the next guy and use them frequently when I write up a player. However, those same metrics would leave a guy like Braves prospect Dimaster Delgado as a relative STUD compared to the league. A 2.60 FIP and a 4/1 K/BB ratio while K'ing more than a batter per inning is awfully impressive right? In person, he wasn't much and actually had lost his rotation spot by the end of the season. Metrics are great, but nothing takes the place of seeing a player first hand.
A league factor you are seriously discounting is the fact most left-handers with control in the "Sally" find themselves with inflated peripheral statistics. Take a look at the success of players like Dimaster Delgado, Banuelos, Rudy Owens, etc. With hitters at this level just learning to hit with wood, a lefty with the ability to throw a secondary pitch for a strike will have success. The same can be said for right-handers to a point, but I really didn't see a left-hander really struggle all season. This included Mets prospect Robert Carson who I saw on multiple occasions. He was named Savannah's best starting pitcher at the end of the season and was actually the 3rd or 4th best.
In many ways, I'm glad the first place you are reading this type of assessment of Banuelos. Hopefully you will see I'm not simply going to go along with the status quo just because. Keep in mind many of the Banuelos reports you read are taken and summarized over and over again while being presented as fresh material. Here's an example from another site.
"Manuel Banuelos: As an 18-year-old, Banuelos has an attacking approach beyond his years. With some refinement and added velocity he could be an ace in the making."
Sound familiar? If I'm the ONLY person discussing the need for additional refinement of his breaking pitches and questioning whether he can gain a few ticks, then I think I know where this assessment came from.
Ultimately, I'm only going to report what I see. Even though I only saw Banuelos once, I trust I know enough about pitching to tell 91 from 96 and that his arm action/release was not indicative of a guy who could get into the mid to upper 90's. Saying Banuelos touches 96 MPH implies he throws harder than Braves prospect Julio Teheran who I saw touch 94 MPH once and there's just no way.
I liked Banuelos a lot as a pitcher and think he has a bright future. To think he was found somewhere in Mexico and signed for who knows what kind of bonus when Kelly was a 1st rounder who signed for 3 million is pretty amazing. If the same guy who signed Aceves signed Banuelos, then the guy deserves a HUGE bonus and a spot as director of scouting. I'm as guilty as anybody of blaming the Yankees for all of MLB's woes, but I can't knock the phenomenal scouting work they have done in Mexico.
I'm surprised that Shorty/Midget is even mentioned in the same breathe as Casey Kelly. Kelly is a plus athlete, Shorty is..well a...Shorty with a Left arm. Sorry, but Big League hitters will destroy Shorty. Kelly will make it to the bigs, Shorty may or may not. End of story!
Pat, I hope you will continue to read the blog and check in from time to time. Whether you agree with my assessment or not, I hope you will appreciate the amount of time and effort I put into this response.
Thanks for reading!
Mike Newman
Oh I most definitely appreciate the feedback as well as the effort you put into the site. I'm actually not on Nyyfans. His innings in A and A+ were the first thing that jumped off the page when I first looked up his stats. Anyway, you do bring up many good points and it's hard to address all of them. RE; Brackman you're definitely right about his velo dropping throughout the season for whatever reason, whether he was just plain tired, or tired of throwing wild pitches or trying to slow his arm down to throw more changeups, I don't know. RE: D. Delgado.. did he lose his rotation spot or did he just get shut down? B-Ref says he appeared in 17 games and started all 17. Considering his previous high was 60 ip it seems like 100ip is shutdown territory. Anyway, keep pluggin away, great site. I'll definitely come back if and when you maliciously and unfairly attack my boy Manny again. (jk)
Hey Pat,
The thing is, I saw Brackman in late April/early May. I know of his falling flat on his face later in the season, but I can't help but wonder if he ever had the top end heat in Charleston to begin with.
As for Delgado, I spent the last weekend of the season catching Rome and caught Delgado warming up in the pen on multiple occasions. It wery well could have been shuttling due to innings, but when Rome is going Spruill - R. Delgado - Teheran - Minor - Hoover, Delgado is a pretty obvious 6th starter to me.
Consider this about Manny. I saw supplemental 1st round pick Brett DeVall with Rome earlier in the year and thought Banuelos was worlds better.
I'm going to start working on a couple of road trips next year to expand my territory beyond the Sally a bit. A Tampa/St. Lucie series may be in order so I can update Banuelos' progress.
Mike-
I have to agree with you. The speeds that are presented by B.A. are often so far off from what I see here in Charleston. In the game I saw Brackman pitch (which was early in '09) there was absolutely no way he was hitting 95 or even anywhere close. He was reliant on his curve and his fastball was barely above league average. I remember the shock when I realized just how optimistic B.A.'s velocity quotes are.
As for Banuelos, I also had the opportunity to see him pitch several times. For those of you who haven't seen him physically play, he's SMALL. Incredibly small. And while there's the chance that he becomes Wandy Rodriguez v.2, he definitely needs to grow more to develop his physique and to develop more overpowering stuff.
Unlike you, I would rank his fastball a tick below Kelly's. In the outings I saw, he hovered around 88 mph and never touched 90. It was his curve that tantalized me, though. He had guys swinging and missing at it all night. And while it's tough to say if MLBers will bite at it, it looked like a more consistent pitch.
In terms of composure and poise, I'd really have to give him the edge. In my notes, I gave him stellar marks for his pitching with runners on and the like.
Thanks for the insight Dylan. For readers of the blog, Dylan might be gracious enough to keep us all updated on happenings in Charleston during the 2010 season.
Mike-
I'm not sure if you've had the opportunity to see Dellin Betances or not. If so who do you think has the brighter future, him or Manny?
Thanks.
Thomas B.,
I have not seen Betances in person. I'll ask Dylan about him.
Comparing two guys who are extreme polar opposites is always tough. It's a matter of taste actually. I might say Betances because I'm a projection-whore, while a site like Project Prospect would say Banuelos because they favor command types. Which do you prefer?
Wait so are you guys saying that there is no way Andrew Brackman can hit 95 mph? Or just when you saw him?
When I saw Brackman in early May, he did not hit 95. Seeing as how his stuff allegedly declined quite rapidly in 2009, I'd be surprised if he gained much more velocity.
So all the scouting reports from NC State, the Cape Cod Leage, the Hawaii Winter league, Spring Training and instructs were fabricated? He is not able to hit 95 mph or above with his fastball?
Hey Pat,
I obviously can't speak for other scouting reports. As far as 2009 is concerned, Baseball America reports Brackman touching 95 MPH (info from the Charleston pitching coach)on an evening where I saw him hit 93 once. Dylan saw Brackman multiple times (I think) and never saw him get to 95. I remember Frank Piliere over at MLB Fanhouse saying he saw Brackman at 88-91, and I'm pretty sure Fangraphs reported his velocity being in that range as well.
With all of this information, I'm pretty confident Brackman wasn't a guy working 95 MPH this season.
Pat,
This is a guy who missed two full seasons with elbow surgery. When he was working at NC State and in the Cape League, I have absolutely no doubts that he was hitting the high 90's and even touching 100.
But this is 2009, two years removed from TJ surgery. When I saw Brackman (twice EARLY in his disastrous 2009), he was nowhere near where people were reporting. Piliere's range is the most accurate. And considering I saw him probably at this best and was his stuff was most electric I think it's fair to say he never reached his prior velocity highs in 2009.
Dylan
Do you have a recent scouting video of manny banuelos pitching or bryan mitchell
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